Matching Messi's Scoring Record, Kane Has a 63.5% Ballon d'Or Probability and Could End England's 25-Year Wait

The clear favorite for the 2026 Ballon d'Or is reportedly Bayern Munich forward Harry Kane. Following the official release of the 30-player Ballon d'Or shortlist on September 8, the latest winning probabilities from various institutions show Kane far ahead with a 63.5% chance. Supporting this attention is an astonishing figure he recorded last season: 73 goals. It is worth noting that this annual football event will be held in London for the first time on October 26.

The brilliance of 73 goals, behind only Messi

Over the past season, Kane scored 73 goals for club and country. For Bayern, he played 51 matches and scored 61 goals: 36 in the Bundesliga, 10 in the German Cup, 14 in the Champions League, and 1 in the Super Cup. In 14 appearances for England, he scored 12 goals, including 6 in the World Cup group stage, 5 in qualifying matches, and 1 in a friendly. He scored 73 goals in 65 matches, averaging more than one goal per game.

To understand the place of this figure in football history, it ranks only behind Messi's 82 goals for Barcelona and Argentina in the 2011-12 season, making it the second-highest single-season scoring total of the 21st century, while surpassing Cristiano Ronaldo's career-best mark of 69 goals. In an interview with Hargreaves for TNT Sports, Kane said seeing these statistics made him feel it was 'almost unbelievable' and that 'you even feel it would be impossible to do on PlayStation.' It is worth noting that 43 of his 73 goals came from direct shots after a single touch, highlighting the efficiency of his finishing beyond the numbers alone.

At 33, reaching the peak of his career

Born in 1993, Kane is now 33 years old. He said he is currently at the peak of his career, with 'ideal physical condition and mental state.' This season, he helped Bayern retain the Bundesliga title, won his first German Cup, and lifted the Beckenbauer Super Cup. With 36 Bundesliga goals, he achieved the feat of winning the Bundesliga Golden Boot for three consecutive years, with 98 goals across two Bundesliga seasons in just 94 matches. He also won the European Golden Shoe, finishing nine goals ahead of second-place Haaland. In the Champions League, Kane ranked second in the scoring charts with 14 goals and helped Bayern reach the semifinals.

Kane was also outstanding for the national team. In World Cup qualifying, he scored 5 goals to help England advance with a perfect record. At the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, he contributed 6 goals and helped England finish third, their best major tournament result since 1966. His performances for both club and country demonstrate the highest level of his career.

63.5% probability, firmly at the top

In the 30-player shortlist announced on September 8, Kane appeared prominently as the first-ranked candidate. Data from various institutions shows his winning probability has reached 63.5%, while second-place Yamal has only 14.2%, and Messi has just 2%. Such a large gap has almost ended the suspense in advance. Although international stars such as Mbappe and Rodri are also among the candidates, they are unlikely to challenge Kane's position in the short term.

This year's Ballon d'Or coincides with the 70th anniversary of the award's creation. The ceremony will be held in London for the first time on October 26, and the evaluation period covers August 3, 2025, to July 19, 2026, exactly matching Kane's 73-goal season. Kane has expressed his desire for the award, saying in an interview, 'Without a doubt, I am extremely proud of last season's performance. I was once just an ordinary fan hoping to become a professional player.'

Of course, the competition remains. Bayern stopped in the Champions League semifinals, and England finished third rather than winning the World Cup, leading some media outlets to question the value of Kane's team honors. However, the overwhelming advantage of his individual statistics means he remains the clear leader in predictions from various institutions.

A 25-year wait

If Kane ultimately wins, he will become the first English player to lift the Ballon d'Or since Michael Owen in 2001. This 25-year gap gives the trophy significance beyond a simple individual honor.

Kane understands the historical significance. He grew up during the era dominated by Messi and Ronaldo, watching them repeatedly break records that seemed like 'only they could create,' and now he finds himself second on the all-time single-season scoring list. 'I feel like I still may not have fully realized the reality of all this.'