Major Turnaround in Chinese Super League Relegation Battle: 26 Points May Not Be Enough for Safety

The Chinese Super League season is nearing its conclusion. Chengdu Rongcheng currently sits firmly at the top of the table and is getting closer to the title. However, in the recently completed Round 26 match, Chengdu Rongcheng drew 0-0 away against relegation-threatened Henan FC and failed to secure the championship early. At the same time, the relegation battle has been full of drama. Bottom-placed Qingdao Hainiu suffered another defeat and could face relegation as early as the next round, while second-bottom Wuhan Three Towns drew 2-2 with Qingdao West Coast. Third-bottom Tianjin Jinmen Tiger defeated Zhejiang FC 2-1 at home. Both Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Jinmen Tiger gained points, changing the relegation battle from a previous three-team fight for two spots into a five-team battle for two places, with even 26 points no longer guaranteeing safety.

Previous relegation predictions were relatively clear. Tianjin Jinmen Tiger, Wuhan Three Towns, and Qingdao Hainiu were considered the three teams in the greatest danger, with a significant gap between them and the other sides, meaning they were mainly competing for two relegation places. The situation is undoubtedly worst for Qingdao Hainiu. In the latest round, they lost 1-2 to Dalian Yingbo, leaving them with only 14 points at the bottom of the table, eight points behind the safety zone and having played one more match.

In other words, with four rounds remaining, if Qingdao Hainiu still cannot win in the next round, they will be relegated directly from the Chinese Super League to the China League One. Tianjin Jinmen Tiger or Wuhan Three Towns could then become the next relegation candidates. However, it is worth noting that both Tianjin Jinmen Tiger and Wuhan Three Towns are experienced in relegation battles, and they have recently pushed hard for points with improved form. In the previous round, Wuhan Three Towns drew 2-2 with Qingdao West Coast at home to earn one point, raising their total to 20 points and placing them second from bottom. Tianjin Jinmen Tiger defeated Zhejiang FC 2-1 to reach 22 points and move to third from bottom.

Although Tianjin Jinmen Tiger appear to lead Wuhan Three Towns by two points, Wuhan Three Towns have played only 24 matches while Tianjin Jinmen Tiger have played 25, meaning Wuhan Three Towns still have a chance to match their points total. Meanwhile, Henan FC and Liaoning FC, who had previously looked relatively secure above the relegation line, have recently struggled. In this round, Liaoning FC suffered a heavy 0-5 defeat, while Henan FC drew with Chengdu Rongcheng. In the current standings, Henan FC have 26 points and sit fifth from bottom, while Liaoning FC have 25 points and are fourth from bottom, leaving them not far from the relegation zone.

In particular, if second-bottom Wuhan Three Towns win their postponed match, they will reach 23 points and the competition will become even tighter. Therefore, the Chinese Super League relegation situation has undergone a major change, shifting from the previous three-team battle for two places to a five-team contest for two places. Henan FC's 26 points and Liaoning FC's 25 points are both not enough to guarantee safety.

For Wuhan Three Towns, their next three matches will be crucial. They will not only determine their own relegation situation but also affect the overall relegation picture of the season. Their upcoming opponents are Henan FC, Zhejiang FC, and Liaoning FC. Zhejiang FC are almost certain to avoid relegation, while Henan FC and Liaoning FC will both be fighting for survival. These key matches are effectively 'six-point battles.' If Wuhan Three Towns can win, they can ease their current relegation pressure. However, even if they ultimately finish second from bottom, they may not necessarily be relegated, as changes involving other teams could still create opportunities for replacement survival.