Matching Messi's Goal Record, Kane Has a 63.5% Chance to Win the Ballon d'Or and Could End England's 25-Year Wait

The top favorite for the 2026 Ballon d'Or is Bayern Munich forward Harry Kane. On September 8 local time, the official 30-man Ballon d'Or shortlist was announced, and the latest odds showed Kane leading by a wide margin with a 63.5% winning probability. Behind this attention is a number that could be written into football history from last season: 73 goals. The annual highest individual honor in football will be presented in London for the first time on October 26.

73 goals, a figure second only to Messi

Kane scored a combined 73 goals for club and country last season. For Bayern Munich, he scored 61 goals in 51 appearances, including 36 in the Bundesliga, 10 in the German Cup, 14 in the Champions League and 1 in the Super Cup. For England, he scored 12 goals in 14 appearances, including 6 at the World Cup finals, 5 in qualifiers and 1 in friendlies. He scored 73 goals in 65 matches, averaging more than one goal per game.

Where does this figure stand in football history? It is behind only Messi's 82 goals for Barcelona and Argentina in the 2011-12 season, ranking second for a single season since the start of the new century, and surpassing Cristiano Ronaldo's career single-season best of 69 goals. In an interview with TNT Sports' Owen Hargreaves, Kane admitted that when he looked up the data he thought, “No way,” adding, “You probably couldn't even do that on PlayStation.” Of his 73 goals, 43 were finished with first-touch shots, showing that his finishing ability was even more impressive than the number itself.

Age 33, his best season

Born in July 1993, Kane is 33 years old this year. He said he is currently at the peak of his career: “Physically, I feel I am in a really good place, and mentally I feel the same.”

This season, he helped Bayern retain the Bundesliga title, won the first German Cup of his career, and added the Beckenbauer Super Cup, collecting three trophies. His 36 Bundesliga goals earned him the league's Golden Boot for the third consecutive season. After two seasons in the Bundesliga, his total has reached 98 goals in only 94 matches. He also won the European Golden Shoe, finishing 9 goals ahead of second-place Haaland. In the Champions League, Kane ranked second in the scoring chart with 14 goals as Bayern reached the semifinals.

His national team performances were equally outstanding. In World Cup qualifying, Kane scored 5 goals in 5 matches, helping England qualify with a perfect record. At the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico, he scored 6 goals and helped England finish third, their best major tournament result in 60 years since 1966. Both at club and international level, he delivered the best performances of his career.

A 63.5% probability, leading by a wide margin

In the 30-man shortlist announced on September 8, Kane ranked first. Data from betting institutions showed his winning probability at 63.5%, while second-place Yamal had 14.2% and Messi had 2%. The large gap has made the suspense appear almost settled early. Stars such as Mbappe and Rodri are also included, but they are unlikely to challenge Kane's position in the short term.

This year's Ballon d'Or coincides with the award's 70th anniversary, and the ceremony will be held in London for the first time on October 26. The voting period runs from August 3, 2025 to July 19, 2026, fully covering Kane's 73-goal season. Kane has openly expressed his desire for the award, saying in an interview: “Without a doubt, I am extremely proud of what I achieved last season. Not long ago, I was just a fan dreaming of becoming a professional footballer.”

Of course, competition still exists. Bayern stopped in the Champions League semifinals, and England finished third rather than winning the World Cup, leading some media outlets to question the strength of Kane's team honors. However, his overwhelming individual statistics have kept him far ahead in predictions from major institutions.

A 25-year wait

If Kane wins the award, he will become the first English player to lift the Ballon d'Or since Michael Owen in 2001. The 25-year gap gives the trophy significance beyond individual achievement.

Kane himself understands the importance of this history. He grew up during the era dominated by Messi and Ronaldo, watching them repeatedly set records that “only they could produce.” Now ranking second in history, he said, “I don't think it has truly become real to me yet.”