September 10: Qingdao Hainiu May Not Necessarily Be Relegated This Year, So Do Not Assume They Are Doomed Just Because They Sit Last in the Table

Qingdao Hainiu may not necessarily be relegated this year.

Qingdao Hainiu currently ranks last in the Chinese Super League, eight points away from the safety zone, and has suffered nine consecutive defeats. Many people look at the standings and believe the team is certain to be relegated, leaving little else to discuss.

But experienced fans do not see it that way.

They think of a person and a team called Meizhou Hakka.

Meizhou Hakka had already been relegated last season, but after a Chinese Super League club dissolved, they returned through replacement qualification and played another year. They were relegated again the following year, but another CSL club was unable to continue and withdrew, allowing them to return through replacement qualification again. For two consecutive years, they were relegated and came back, came back and were relegated, and then came back again.

This is not a joke; it actually happened.

Qingdao Hainiu's current situation is similar to Meizhou Hakka's situation back then. The similarity is not on the sporting side, but in off-field circumstances.

This year in the CSL, some clubs have reportedly been unable to pay wages. This is widely discussed, and people within the industry understand the situation of each club. If Qingdao Hainiu's owner had learned of such circumstances early, deliberately avoided additional investment, and waited to return to the CSL through replacement after relegation, then continuing to play in the CSL next year, would that logic make sense?

If that were to happen, a league season that teams fought hard for would end up becoming a huge joke again.

Current situation

Statistics provide the clearest picture of Qingdao Hainiu's current situation.

After 26 league matches, they have earned only 14 points and sit at the bottom of the table. They are eight points from safety with four rounds remaining. More importantly, they have suffered nine straight defeats, and the players' morale and confidence have been badly affected.

At the beginning of the season, the club was deducted seven points. As a small-budget operation, this deduction was a major blow. A series of foreign player injuries followed, and the team was unable to assemble its strongest lineup. The coach's tactics did not match the team's ability, and the team's execution did not meet the coach's requirements. Wage payment issues have remained unresolved, and players on the field are also thinking about whether next month's salaries can be paid.

From a competitive perspective, Hainiu's relegation appears almost inevitable. This is not pessimism; it is the reality.

Historical precedent

The story of Meizhou Hakka is the best example.

In the 2024 season, Meizhou Hakka finished last and were relegated to the second tier. Under normal procedures, they should have moved to the second division. However, at the end of 2024, Cangzhou Mighty Lions failed to obtain league admission due to operational issues and announced their dissolution. As the highest-ranked relegated team, Meizhou Hakka received replacement qualification and stayed in the CSL.

In the 2025 season, Meizhou Hakka were relegated again and again finished last. At the end of 2025, Guangzhou FC also could not continue and announced their withdrawal. Meizhou Hakka once again returned through replacement qualification and continued playing in the CSL.

Two relegations, two replacement returns, two comebacks.

This is not a coincidence; it is an openly discussed phenomenon in the CSL. If clubs face poor operations or dissolution risks, the bottom-ranked relegated team may have a chance to revive through replacement qualification.

This year's scenario

This year's CSL situation may be more complicated.

At the start of the 2026 season, nine teams were deducted points due to match-fixing, gambling-related, and corruption-related cases, and the Chinese football league organization adopted a zero-tolerance approach toward wage arrears. Although there is currently no confirmed information about which clubs may dissolve after the season, people in the industry are aware of the financial conditions of various clubs.

Qingdao Hainiu itself has been involved in reports of alleged unpaid wages totaling 30 million yuan. Player salaries have reportedly been delayed for several months, and the club has not provided an explanation. If other teams face similar financial problems and fail to obtain league admission, Qingdao Hainiu, as the highest-ranked relegated team, would be first in line for replacement.

This is a very practical calculation.

The investors behind Hainiu are private capital. With a seven-point deduction at the start of the season and an incomplete squad, instead of investing heavily to pursue a result that might still end in failed survival, they could choose strategic relegation, prioritize resolving debts, wait for other teams to exit, and return through replacement qualification.

By this calculation, the deal appears very worthwhile.

An absurd reality

If Qingdao Hainiu really stayed through replacement qualification, it would be a major irony for other teams that fought desperately for survival this season.

Teams such as Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Jinmen Tiger have made great efforts to avoid relegation. They invested substantial resources, players ran tirelessly on the pitch, coaching staffs designed tactics carefully, and fans shouted themselves hoarse in support.

The result? A relegated team could return because of off-field factors. Such uncertainty weakens the seriousness of the league.

This is not only Qingdao Hainiu's story; it reflects the conflict between club survival and competitive fairness during the professional development of Chinese football.

Relegation is no longer the end, but may become the starting point of the next round of the game.

The final suspense

With four rounds remaining, Qingdao Hainiu sit bottom of the table and are eight points from safety. Mathematically, they still have a theoretical chance of survival. But everyone knows that chance is extremely small.

What is truly worth watching is the off-field situation.

Which teams will be unable to continue? Which teams will dissolve? What exactly is Qingdao Hainiu's owner waiting for?

These questions are more interesting than the standings themselves.

If Qingdao Hainiu are eventually relegated and then return through replacement qualification, they will have learned from Meizhou Hakka's experience. If they do not return, it would mean the off-field situation is not as serious as expected.

Regardless of the result, this matter itself has already caused people to question the seriousness of the CSL.

If relegation can be avoided through replacement qualification, survival can happen without on-field performance, and the integrity of the league can be determined by off-field factors, then what meaning does this league have?

Qingdao Hainiu may not be relegated this year. The statement sounds ironic, but it may be true.