Champions League 144-Match Predictions: Real Madrid Lead, Napoli Close to Direct Round of 16 Spot

Predictions for the 144 Champions League league-phase matches have been released. Last year, this prediction model placed Real Madrid at the top, predicted Napoli would come close to direct qualification for the round of 16, and forecast Villarreal to earn 11 points; it also predicted Kairat would collect only one point with a goal difference of -16. These predictions are for reference only and should not be used for betting, but the results can be reviewed again on January 27.

Round One: Mourinho's Real Madrid Suppress His Former Club

In the most anticipated match of the opening round, Jose Mourinho's Real Madrid held a clear advantage against his former club Inter Milan, with Kylian Mbappe bringing his ability to create many shooting opportunities in La Liga to the Champions League stage. Meanwhile, teams making their first appearances struggled at the start, with LASK and Viking both losing away by one goal, while Como were held to a draw by counterattacking specialists RB Leipzig and earned only one point.

Azerbaijani team Sabah traveled to Old Trafford in the opening round. Although Manchester United, coached by Michael Carrick, eventually secured victory, the night remained an unforgettable experience for Sabah. English clubs generally made a strong start in the league phase, with all winning except Manchester City. Enzo Maresca's team was twice pegged back by an impressive Porto side.

Week Two Brings Many Upsets, With Two La Liga Giants in Trouble Away From Home

Week two saw a wave of upsets, especially as Spain's two major clubs faced difficult away matches at the worst possible time. Victor Osimhen and Baris Alper Yilmaz caused major problems behind Barcelona's high defensive line, while Mourinho's return to the Eternal City was a painful journey, with Donyell Malen scoring again.

Paris Saint-Germain lost 0-1 to Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium, a defeat that increased doubts over whether they truly placed enough importance on the league phase. Over the past two seasons, people have debated whether Paris Saint-Germain's issue was their attitude or whether their repeated appearances in the knockout playoff round were simply coincidence. In this match, the defending champions, playing with a rotated lineup, never truly pushed to win.

The Biggest Upset Came in Azerbaijan

The biggest upset of the round may have come from Azerbaijan. According to clubELO ratings, Sabah's strength was roughly equivalent to a Championship team fighting to avoid relegation, but they won their first home match of the league phase by dramatically defeating Slavia Prague in the final moments.

This week, four teams widely regarded as title contenders faced each other directly, and almost every team further strengthened its championship credentials after the matches. Even Arsenal could be satisfied with their performance in an away match against Bayern Munich, where they stayed close on the scoreboard; with William Saliba returning, they could become stronger in the second half of the season. Michael Olise and Harry Kane's attacking threat in the final third was still too much for Arsenal this time, but if the two teams meet again in spring, the situation could be different.