How Will the Clippers Move Forward? APHoops: If the Punishment Does Not Increase, Which of These Three Paths Should They Choose?

Sept. 9 — Today, APHoops said that if the league does not further increase its punishment of the Los Angeles Clippers, the team will have roughly three possible paths to choose from moving forward.

The first option is a “Gap Year”: the team would focus this season on retaining players such as Max Strus and Derrick Jones, whose contracts are about to expire, then use an expected roughly $50 million in cap space next summer to improve through free agency or trades. However, because the timeline is short, this approach would basically not help the Clippers accumulate many more draft picks.

The second option is a “Two Year Turnaround.” The Clippers could wait for the contracts of Darius Garland and Brandon Ingram to naturally expire, while avoiding taking on any unnecessary long-term contracts that extend beyond the 2027-28 season, with their target set directly on the summer of 2028. At that point, the Clippers could theoretically have up to about $135 million in cap space, with the only players under contract potentially being Keaton Wagler, Yannick Konan Niedhauser, Kobe Sanders, Jordan Miller, Baba Miller, and the rookie selected using the 2027 first-round pick swap with the Raptors. This route would also make it difficult to recover many draft picks, because other teams would have little reason to send roughly $40 million expiring contracts plus picks in exchange for Garland or Ingram; instead, they could simply wait until their own contracts expire and pursue them in free agency.

The third option is the “Marry The Nanny” approach proposed by Bill Simmons, which means simply accepting second-apron restrictions over the long term. Because the Clippers will not truly own their own first-round pick until 2034, are subject to the Stepien Rule during that period, and have one of the wealthiest owners in professional sports, they theoretically may not fear the high luxury tax costs and future frozen first-round picks caused by the second apron as much as other teams. The Clippers could acquire players through trades, obtain their Bird Rights, and then re-sign them to expensive contracts, pushing total salary toward the second-apron hard cap of about $233 million. For example, if Michael Porter Jr. wanted a contract worth $40 million per year and the Nets were unwilling to meet that demand, he could theoretically seek a trade to the Clippers, who could then use his Bird Rights to extend him. A similar approach could apply to players such as Cameron Johnson, Fred VanVleet, Jimmy Butler, Scoot Henderson, Dereck Lively II, and Brandin Podziemski: find players who are unhappy with extension offers, are willing to push for a trade, and want a large contract, sign them to expensive deals first, then potentially trade them to championship contenders in the future for draft picks. However, once this route is chosen, the Clippers would have no cap space while operating above the second apron, and regaining flexibility would require a significant reduction in salary. Therefore, this is more likely to be a long-term plan lasting three to four years.

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